Electric utilities across the nation are under immense pressure to demonstrate a comprehensive understanding of their wildfire exposure to stakeholders—communities, creditors, regulators, insurers, and boards. However, a fundamental problem lies in the reliance on traditional, static risk assessments. These assessments, while earnestly detailed, create an illusion of preparedness that leaves electric utilities vulnerable to a fundamental truth: fire is dynamic.
The Disconnect Between Static Data and Analyzing Dynamic Risk
Traditional risk assessments provide a fixed snapshot, relying on historical data, terrain analysis, fuel assessments, and extreme scenario modeling, such as the ‘1-in-100-year event.’ While these elements are valuable for establishing a baseline understanding, they are literally obsolete for decision making purposes before they are completed. Wildfire risk changes from season to season, month to month, day to day and even hour to hour with the weather and its ongoing impact on the terrain and local vegetation.
For electric utilities facing any ignition risk, relying on static assessments is akin to hiking in the woods with an outdated map. The illusion of control offered by a fixed assessment can lead to catastrophic consequences when faced with the daily fluctuations and unpredictable nature of actual wildfire risk. If you’re reading this blog, the data suggests that you’re right in believing that your risk may be more than you think.
Dynamic Risk Analysis Provides Clarity on Real Risk
Dynamic risk analysis helps to keep the “map” of fire risk up to date at all times, both for planning and operational decisions. Dynamic risk analysis: builds upon the foundation of a risk assessment by incorporating real-time and forecasted weather data, including granular, commercial-grade weather information. This approach:
- Reduces Wildfire Ignitions: Proactive mitigation based on dynamic risk analysis can significantly reduce the likelihood of electric utility-caused ignitions.
- Creates More Surgical PSPS: By forecasting high-risk periods and locations, electric utilities can better anticipate the need for Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS), reducing the time and areas of customer disruptions and associated safety risks.
- Improves Decision-Making: Real-time and forecasted risk data empowers electric utilities to make more informed decisions about resource allocation, emergency preparedness, and public communication.
- Enhances Stakeholder Communication: Dynamic risk analysis provides concrete data that electric utilities can use to demonstrate their commitment to wildfire safety to regulators, insurers, credit agencies, investors, and community stakeholders.
- Increases the Cost Effectiveness of Vegetation Management and Asset Hardening: With real-time and forecasted risk information, electric utilities can implement more effective mitigation strategies such as targeted vegetation management based on changing conditions, prioritized inspections and equipment maintenance, and ongoing updates of the most critical assets for hardening and capital improvements.
What’s in Dynamic Risk Analysis?
To be effective in providing these benefits, Dynamic Risk Analysis must include:
- Simulation of Wildfire Ignition and Spread: These models not only predict the likelihood of ignition but also simulate how a fire might spread under specific conditions, giving utilities a better understanding of potential impacts.
- A Real-Time View: By integrating current weather conditions and fuel moisture levels, dynamic analysis offers a constantly updated picture of wildfire risk across a utility’s service area.
- Forecasting: Coupled with weather forecasts, dynamic analysis predicts future wildfire risk, allowing utilities to anticipate high-risk periods and take proactive measures.
The Bottom Line
Many electric utilities today make the dangerous assumption that a static, historical snapshot of wildfire risk is sufficient for managing a dynamic, ever-evolving threat. Relying on these outdated assessments leaves electric utilities blind to the real-time fluctuations and forecasted dangers that directly impact ignition and spread potential. The strongest utilities embrace dynamic risk analysis, integrating real-time and forecasted data, to demonstrate to themselves, their customers, and their financial stakeholders that they are proactively mitigating the escalating threat of wildfire.
