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FireRisk™

Learn how you can predict, quantify, and analyze wildfire risk to support operational decision-making.

 

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Wildfire Risk Forecasting Provides Critical Insights Into Future Weather and Fire Danger Scenarios.

A new risk forecast is produced daily with a 100+ hour horizon. Risk metrics are calculated every 1-3 hours for the entire forecast period.

FireRisk™ integrates advanced weather forecasts with WFA FireSim™ modeling to perform hundreds of millions of fire simulations daily to derive both current and near-term risk forecasts for customer service territories and critical assets. New forecasts are derived daily, sometimes twice a day, to provide accurate and timely analysis of possible wildfire events.

Baseline risk and consequence metrics are derived by identifying at-risk populations, buildings, and critical facilities that may be impacted. For electric utility customers, risk metrics are calculated hourly for infrastructure assets to support possible PSPS de-energization analysis, as well as EOC activation, stakeholder and public notification, and resource allocation and deployment.

Advanced analysis is undertaken to estimate the number of buildings destroyed or severely damaged if a wildfire were to occur. This advanced analysis leverages the rich historical data repository developed by Technosylva and employed in Machine Learning models to accurately analyze potential building loss.

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1

Advanced Weather Prediction

Advanced WRF models are used to create 100+ hour weather forecasts at 2 km spatial and 1-hour temporal resolution. These predictions allow you to identify future weather events and areas of concern.
2

Seamless Integration of Real-Time Weather Observation Data

Weather prediction data is augmented with the integration of weather station data to provide a comprehensive analysis of changing conditions synonymous with wildfire events. Tools are provided to query and analyze this data to support real-time decision making.
3

Wildfire Risk Forecasting

Leveraging WFA FireSim capabilities, hundreds of millions of simulations are run nightly to derive wildfire risk metrics that identify areas and levels of concern for public safety. Risk metrics can be tailored to meet the needs of the customer.
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Historical Risk Profiles

Daily risk forecasts are compared to 30+ years of risk metrics to provide context for current and pending events. This rich historical repository is key for assessing the preparation necessary during event activation.

Technosylva customers include leaders such as:

Why is FireCast the Best Wildfire Risk Solution for You?

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1

Established & Proven

Our solution is trusted, proven, and reliable. It has been adopted by both the authoritative wildfire management fire agency in California, CAL FIRE, and by all major Investor Owned Utility companies in the Western US.
2

Advanced Weather Data Integration

The integration of leading weather forecast models facilitates the prediction of extreme risk scenarios, days in advance of occurring.
3

Advanced Wildfire Modeling That is Battle Tested.

Our solution is used, day-in and day-out, across California for continually analyzing risk, and modeling every incident that occurs – over 19,000 alone in 2020 and 2021. Our solution provides critical information for the firefighter in the field and the incident teams coordinating response and suppression efforts.
4

Seamless Integration of Key Data.

To accurate analyze wildfire risk in real-time requires the seamless integration of numerous data sources into a single harmonious environment, minimizing the user having to use multiple applications and web sites. Integration is the foundation of FireCast.
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Relied Upon and Referenced for Regulatory Compliance.

Investor Owned Utilities across the Western US rely heavily on our solutions to meet their regulatory needs for Wildfire Mitigation Plan development and submissions. Our solutions provide the scientific and technical sophistication necessary to address the challenges of proactive preparedness planning.
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SaaS Solution with Minimal IT Footprint for Implementation.

Deploying our solutions requires minimal IT investment or coordination. Deployed as a SaaS solution using robust cloud-based computing environment, minimizes the administration requirements for customers, while ensuring a robust, secure and reliable user experience.

Monitoring Your Weather Scenarios and Wildfire Risk with Risk Metrics Tailored to Your Business

FireRisk’s outputs provide the foundation for wildfire risk analysis, through enhanced consequence modeling to quantify safety, financial and reliability metrics consistent with enterprise risk management methods. For electrical utility, risk metrics are assigned back to potential asset ignition sources identifying which assets are of most concern, in what areas. The integration of fire spread modeling provides information not readily available in the past, and is a key ingredient for distinguishing those assets prime for de-energization or mitigation. For wildfire management agencies, risk forecasts identify people, assets and critical facilities at risk providing the information necessary for resource prioritization and response planning.

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Infrastructure Asset Risk

Assets that are possible ignition sources, such as powerlines, are analyzed with wildfire spread predictions and probability of ignition models to identify those assets which will have the greatest impacts, should they cause an ignition. This information is a key ingredient for the PSPS decision making process.

Territory Wide Risk

Risk is calculated continuously across the entire service territory by analyzing spread impacts from regularly spaced ignition points. This information is ideal for setting agency readiness levels, staging resources and prioritizing areas of concern.

Fire Size Potential

A key metric is identifying fire size potential for possible wildfires should they occur. This metric identifies areas where fires will grow quickly given specific weather and fuel conditions.

Buildings Threatened & Destroyed

Building footprints are used to identify structures most at risk given weather conditions & potential fire behavior. Estimates of buildings threatened and possibly destroyed are derived leveraging advanced Machine Learning models and rich historical loss data. Loss is assessed on an individual building basis providing highly granular data to support decision making, whether you are a response agency, electrical utility company, or insurance company.

Population Impacted

Public safety during wildfire events is paramount. Detailed population data is employed in the wildfire risk models to identify population at risk and support evacuation planning across the customer territory. Advanced models are applied to identify social vulnerability and egress concerns that may increase risk in certain areas.

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next steps to mitigate your risk with one of our solutions specialists.