The Big Picture:
Electric utility risk managers face a daunting challenge: accurately predicting and mitigating wildfire risk in an increasingly volatile environment. Red Flag Warnings, issued by the National Weather Service, are often used as a critical tool in this effort. They provide a seemingly clear indication of high-risk fire weather conditions. However, the reality is far more complex. The gap between the broad warnings and the specific needs of utilities is the core problem that must be addressed. While Red Flag Warnings are essential for general public awareness, they fall short of providing the precise, actionable intelligence electric utilities need to protect their infrastructure and communities.
The Catch:
There is a critical difference between fire spread and fire starts. The primary focus of Red Flag Warnings is on the spread of existing fires. This is crucial for public safety, but it doesn’t directly translate to the risk of ignition from electric utility infrastructure or other sources. An electric utility’s greatest concern, and ability to mitigate a fire, is often the initial spark, which can be triggered by seemingly less severe conditions than those just examined for rapid fire spread. Therefore, basing operational decisions solely on Red Flag Warnings can lead to either over or under-reaction.
Red Flag Warnings cover broad geographic areas, often spanning entire counties or regions. Electric utilities, however, need to pinpoint risks at the circuit level, so they can act to mitigate the threat. The Red Flag Warning’s lack of granularity can lead to inefficient resource allocation and unnecessary operational disruptions, or worse yet, inaction.
In addition, when electric utilities base their situational awareness on Red Flag Warnings, they can misinterpret the consequences of “dry lightning”, which are included under the Red Flag scope but represent a fundamentally different risk profile. Dry lightning is lightning that strikes the ground absent of significant rainfall. This makes it particularly dangerous because it can easily ignite dry vegetation, leading to wildfires without the natural suppression of accompanying rain. This can lead to the potential for numerous, simultaneous ignitions; a scenario that can quickly overwhelm resources regardless of wind speed or humidity. This requires a completely different operational response than warnings driven by wind and ignoring the unique challenges of dry lightning can leave electric utilities vulnerable to widespread, uncontrollable fires.
Relying solely on Red Flag Warnings can lead to:
- Overreaction: Implementing costly and disruptive measures, like widespread PSPS, when the actual risk to infrastructure is localized or less severe and a surgical approach would have the same efficacy against the fire.
- Underreaction too: Failing to take necessary precautions when localized ignition risks are high, even if the overall Red Flag Warning doesn’t seem dire.
- Inefficient Resource: Allocation: Deploying resources across a broad area when the true risk is concentrated in specific locations ignitions.
- Liability Exposure: Making operational decisions based on incomplete data, potentially leading to preventable ignitions and subsequent legal repercussions.
How Utilities Can Respond…and Improve:
Red Flag Warnings are a valuable piece of the puzzle, but not the whole picture. To change, electric utility risk managers can:
- Understand the Nuances: Recognize that not all Red Flag Warnings are created equal. Train teams to ask deeper questions about what’s happening in their environment, and how they should react to different conditions. Dry lightning warnings, for example, require a different response than warnings based on wind and low humidity.
- Operationalize Granular Data: Don’t rely solely on the broad geographic scope of Red Flag Warnings. Supplement them with more precise data that pinpoints specific areas of risk within their service territory, and operationalizes the response to the granular data in resource deployment, asset hardening, vegetation management and PSPS plans.
- Integrate with Broader Information and Risk Assessment: Use Red Flag Warnings as one input among many in a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment. Consider factors like fuel conditions, topography, and proximity to utility infrastructure.
Red Flag Warnings are a valuable starting point, but they represent only a fraction of the information electric utility risk managers need. The core problem is the need for precise, localized, and ignition-focused risk assessments. By recognizing the limitations of broad public warnings and actively seeking more granular data, utilities can move beyond reactive responses and develop proactive strategies that safeguard their infrastructure, communities, and financial stability.
