Duration: 1 hour

This informative webinar, in collaboration with Utility Dive, explores the tactics utilized by leading electric utilities to forecast, mitigate, and respond to wildfire risks and the associated liability.

As wildfires continue to increase in frequency and severity, they present a significant threat to electric utilities infrastructure and communities. Electric utilities face a risk stemming from their infrastructure to trigger wildfires and the liabilities that come with that.

Electric utilities can adopt proactive measures, such as preemptive power shutdowns to minimize the risk of wildfires and safeguard the areas in their service territory as well as using solutions that can help assess assets for mitigation purposes.

During the session, you will learn from Technosylva:

• Insights into the latest trends and patterns in wildfire behavior, and their implications for risk and liability exposure
• Methodologies for assessing wildfire risk and strategies for implementing effective mitigation measures
• Tools and techniques for real-time monitoring and response to wildfire threats

Speakers

Picture this scenario: At 2:47 AM on a wind-whipped October morning, an electric utility meteorologist stares at forecast models with growing unease. What had been predicted as manageable 35 mph winds twelve hours earlier now shows catastrophic potential: sustained winds of 45 mph with gusts reaching 70. In twelve hours, the electric utility might need to make a decision that would have been unthinkable just five years ago: intentionally cutting power for up to 50,000 customers in order to prevent a high-probability catastrophic wildfire.

For electric utilities in wildfire-risk areas nationwide, this scenario represents the new reality of operations. Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS), once a radical concept, have rapidly evolved into the new standard of care. Today, regulators don’t just expect electric utilities to have PSPS programs: they consider it negligent not to have them, even if they’re rarely used.

This requires electric utilities to embrace a fundamental change in mindset, from “we will never turn off the power” to “we will do everything in our power to create a safe community, and minimize the impact of PSPS if it needs to be used.” This comes with a change in operational approach, which requires data, precision and communication to approach PSPS surgically: only when necessary and only where necessary.

The Sprint Against Time

Unlike traditional electric utility operations that can unfold over days or weeks, PSPS decisions happen in a compressed timeframe that leaves no room for hesitation. Electric utilities have maybe 48 to 72 hours from the moment they can forecast high-risk conditions to the moment they need to notify customers. In that window, they’re analyzing thousands of assets, running risk calculations on hundreds of circuits, and making decisions that affect tens of thousands of lives.

This isn’t leisurely analysis: it’s a sprint requiring immediate action and coordinated responses. The process has evolved dramatically since those early days of broad shutoffs, with electric utilities developing increasingly precise approaches to minimize customer impacts while maintaining safety.

But this precision comes at a cost: the need for split-second decision-making under enormous pressure.

The Meteorologist’s Critical Role

In this new paradigm, electric utility meteorologists have become the first line of defense in wildfire prevention. No longer simply weather forecasters, they’re now critical decision-makers whose forecasts trigger million-dollar operational responses. Meteorologists who once focused on telling operations teams what weather to expect now must identify which areas face the highest ignition risk.

The integration between meteorology and operations has become seamless by necessity. Weather data flows directly into asset risk models, which feed into circuit-level decision matrices, which trigger customer notification systems—all within hours of a forecast update.

Building Your Decision-Making Framework

For electric utilities developing or refining their PSPS capabilities, the operational challenge centers on key questions that must be answered before the next high-risk weather event:

Decision Prioritization: What sequence of decisions needs to be established in advance? How do you move from weather forecast to asset evaluation to customer notification in compressed timeframes? Which decisions can be made in parallel, and which must follow a specific order?

Rapid Asset Evaluation: When analyzing thousands of assets under time pressure, how do you prioritize which circuits or equipment to evaluate first? What criteria determine high-priority versus lower-priority areas for immediate risk assessment?

Internal Capability Requirements: What roles and expertise need to be available 24/7 during high-risk periods? How do you structure teams to enable rapid decision-making across meteorology, operations, and customer communications?

Communication Coordination: How do you ensure seamless information flow from weather forecasting through operational decisions to customer notifications? What internal processes prevent communication delays when every hour matters?

These questions don’t have universal answers: each electric utility’s responses will depend on their specific territory, asset configuration, and risk profile. But addressing them in advance creates the foundation for effective PSPS decision-making when time is critical.

The Path Forward

The evolution is measurable: PG&E has brought down its number of impacted customers by over 10x per year through wildfire forecasting, asset-level risk analysis, and circuit control improvements since 2018. What once seemed like an impossible balance (safety and reliability) has become the new standard of excellence.

For electric utility leaders still navigating this transition, PSPS isn’t just another tool in the wildfire mitigation toolkit. It’s a fundamental reimagining of what it means to serve communities responsibly in an era of climate risk. The electric utilities that thrive will be those that embrace this paradigm shift completely, investing in the meteorological capabilities, operational precision, and community relationships that make PSPS not just possible, but optimized and exemplary.

The lights may go out by design, but the mission has never been clearer: keeping communities safe through decisive operational decision-making.

Duration: 45 minutes

As wildfire threats grow in more regions, electric utilities need to rethink how they assess and manage risk. In this webinar, Technosylva’s Steve Vanderburg explains why it’s critical to shift from static assessments to dynamic, real-time tools.

Learn how utilities are using advanced modeling, AI, and weather data to:

• Move from one-time assessments to continuous risk analysis
• Make real-time operational decisions during fire events
• Prioritize mitigation efforts with circuit-level precision
• Strengthen wildfire response plans and infrastructure protection

Why Electric Utilities Must Move Beyond Forecasts to Climatological Foresight

Electric utilities today face a growing and unpredictable threat: the Black Swan event — a rare but devastating natural catastrophe that can cripple infrastructure and disrupt entire communities. As wildfires and extreme weather events become more frequent and intense, relying solely on traditional weather forecasts is no longer enough.

In a recent Utility Dive piece, Steve Vanderburg, Technosylva’s Vice President for Weather & Risk Solutions, explored how electric utilities can better anticipate and mitigate these high-impact events. Drawing from his experience across government and electric utility roles, he emphasizes the critical need for electric utilities to incorporate climatology, the study of long-term weather patterns, into their risk management strategies.

Here are 3 key takeaways for electric utilities aiming to future-proof their grid

• Forecasts show the weather. Climatology shows the why behind the risk
  Traditional weather forecasting tells you what’s coming. But without the context of historical weather extremes, it’s hard to know whether an event is routine or unprecedented. Understanding that a wind event, for example, is in the 99.5th percentile of past data can change the entire response strategy.
• Climatology reveals anomalies — and that’s where Black Swans hide.
  Wildfires in regions with little prior history, like Oregon’s 2020 Labor Day fires, show how fast the risk landscape can shift. Localized climatological modeling can identify those rare but high-impact scenarios before they happen.
• Local fire weather behavior is key to smarter decisions.
  A 40 mph gust isn’t the same everywhere. Trees in wind-sheltered zones respond differently than those accustomed to strong gusts. Understanding these localized dynamics helps set better thresholds for action and improve operational resilience.

By understanding the historical climatological context of their service areas, electric utilities can better identify anomalies in current weather patterns and shift from reactive responses to proactive risk mitigation. That means greater accuracy, earlier warnings and a stronger, resilient grid.

Read his full article in Utility Dive to learn how electric utilities are leveraging climatology, ignition modeling, wildfire spread predictions, and impact analysis to forecast risk days in advance. See how leading electric utilities are applying these tools like weather forecasts, ignition models, on-demand wildfire spread predictions, in practice to forecast & monitor wildfire risks before disaster strikes.

The Big Picture

Electric utility risk managers face a daunting challenge: accurately predicting and mitigating wildfire risk in an increasingly volatile environment.

Red Flag Warnings, issued by the National Weather Service, are often used as a critical tool in this effort. They provide a seemingly clear indication of high-risk fire weather conditions. However, the reality is far more complex.

The gap between the broad warnings and the specific needs of utilities is the core problem that must be addressed.

While Red Flag Warnings are essential for general public awareness, they fall short of providing the precise, actionable intelligence electric utilities need to protect their infrastructure and communities.

The Catch

Spread vs. Start: Why That Difference Matters

There is a critical difference between fire spread and fire starts. The primary focus of Red Flag Warnings is on the spread of existing fires. This is crucial for public safety, but it doesn’t directly translate to the risk of ignition from electric utility infrastructure or other sources.

An electric utility’s greatest concern, and ability to mitigate a fire, is often the initial spark, which can be triggered by seemingly less severe conditions than those just examined for rapid fire spread. Therefore, basing operational decisions solely on Red Flag Warnings can lead to either over or under-reaction.

Red Flag Warnings cover broad geographic areas, often spanning entire counties or regions. Electric utilities, however, need to pinpoint risks at the circuit level, so they can act to mitigate the threat.

The Red Flag Warning’s lack of granularity can lead to inefficient resource allocation and unnecessary operational disruptions, or worse yet, inaction.

Dry Lightning Adds Hidden Complexity

In addition, when electric utilities base their situational awareness on Red Flag Warnings, they can misinterpret the consequences of “dry lightning”, which are included under the Red Flag scope but represent a fundamentally different risk profile.

Dry lightning is lightning that strikes the ground absent of significant rainfall. This makes it particularly dangerous because it can easily ignite dry vegetation, leading to wildfires without the natural suppression of accompanying rain.

Why This Can Quickly Spiral

This can lead to the potential for numerous, simultaneous ignitions; a scenario that can quickly overwhelm resources regardless of wind speed or humidity.

This requires a completely different operational response than warnings driven by wind and ignoring the unique challenges of dry lightning can leave electric utilities vulnerable to widespread, uncontrollable fires.

Relying solely on Red Flag Warnings can lead to:

• Overreaction: Implementing costly and disruptive measures, like widespread PSPS, when the actual risk to infrastructure is localized or less severe and a surgical approach would have the same efficacy against the fire.
• Underreaction too: Failing to take necessary precautions when localized ignition risks are high, even if the overall Red Flag Warning doesn’t seem dire.
• Inefficient Resource: Allocation: Deploying resources across a broad area when the true risk is concentrated in specific locations ignitions.
• Liability Exposure: Making operational decisions based on incomplete data, potentially leading to preventable ignitions and subsequent legal repercussions.

How Utilities Can Respond—and Improve

Red Flag Warnings are a valuable piece of the puzzle, but not the whole picture. To change, electric utility risk managers can:

• Understand the Nuances: Recognize that not all Red Flag Warnings are created equal. Train teams to ask deeper questions about what’s happening in their environment, and how they should react to different conditions. Dry lightning warnings, for example, require a different response than warnings based on wind and low humidity.
• Operationalize Granular Data: Don’t rely solely on the broad geographic scope of Red Flag Warnings. Supplement them with more precise data that pinpoints specific areas of risk within their service territory, and operationalizes the response to the granular data in resource deployment, asset hardening, vegetation management and PSPS plans.
• Integrate with Broader Information and Risk Assessment: Use Red Flag Warnings as one input among many in a comprehensive wildfire risk assessment. Consider factors like fuel conditions, topography, and proximity to utility infrastructure.

Red Flag Warnings are a valuable starting point, but they represent only a fraction of the information electric utility risk managers need.

The core problem is the need for precise, localized, and ignition-focused risk assessments.

By recognizing the limitations of broad public warnings and actively seeking more granular data, utilities can move beyond reactive responses and develop proactive strategies that safeguard their infrastructure, communities, and financial stability.

Electric utility risk managers are tasked with an increasingly complex challenge: predicting and mitigating wildfire risk in a dynamic and unpredictable environment. While “Red Flag Warnings” from the National Weather Service have traditionally served as a key indicator of potential fire danger, they fall short of providing the specific, actionable insights needed for effective decision-making.

There is a significant gap between the broad, meteorological focus of Red Flag Warnings and the granular, consequence-driven risk assessments required by electric utilities to protect critical infrastructure and communities. This blind spot leaves utilities exposed to potentially devastating consequences.

The Problem: The Limitations of Weather-Centric Warnings

Primarily, Red Flag Warnings focus on meteorological conditions, such as wind and dryness, but fail to account for the complex interplay of factors that drive actual fire behavior. This leaves electric utilities with a limited understanding of how and where a fire might start and truly impact their service territory.

The core issue is that weather forecasts, while essential, provide conditions, whereas electric utilities require an understanding of consequence. Simply knowing it’s windy and dry doesn’t translate to knowing where assets are most at risk of starting a fire if they come in contact with vegetation or how rapidly that fire may spread.

Furthermore, Red Flag Warnings do not quantify the impact of a potential fire. Adding to the problem is the broad geographic scope of weather-centric warnings. This lack of precision can lead to inefficient resource deployment and missed opportunities for targeted mitigation.

Electric utilities need to understand the potential for property damage, population at risk, and infrastructure loss to make informed decisions about resource allocation and mitigation strategies from one possible start to another.

In addition, models that can predict fire risk days in advance afford leading electric utilities the ability to implement proactive mitigation strategies, a capability that Red Flag Warnings alone do not provide.

How Utilities Can Respond…and Improve:

Leading electric utilities are addressing this problem by integrating weather forecast data with sophisticated, granular fire behavior modeling. They are creating their own granular and days-in-advance view of where fires are likely, where they will spread, and which assets and communities could be involved. This approach:

• Captures Complex Relationships: Instead of just looking at the weather, these models incorporate fuel moisture, fuel type, topography, wind speed, wind direction, and other crucial factors to create a more accurate, more granular view for decision-making. They then simulate how these elements interact to influence fire spread across their service territory and assets.
• Quantifies Risk: By simulating fire spread under forecasted conditions, electric utilities can quantify the potential impacts of a fire. This includes estimating the population at risk, the number of buildings affected, and the acreage potentially burned.
• Identifies High-Risk Areas: Running simulations across a grid allows electric utilities to identify high-risk areas where the combination of fuels, topography, and forecasted weather creates the highest potential for large, damaging fires. Many electric utilities are using this information to do fast-cycle asset hardening or vegetation management days before a potential event. This data also drives longer-term asset-hardening and vegetation management decisions under limited budgets and rate increase abilities.
• Streamlining Data into a Singular View: Electric utilities need to aggregate the results of these simulations into a single, easily digestible product, such as a “fire size potential” map, to have actionable information and quicker decision-making for proactive measures.

What’s Next: The Future of Wildfire Management

Electric utilities require granular data that pinpoints specific areas of elevated risk within their service territory, rather than a general regional warning. Integrating weather forecasting with fire behavior modeling is a critical step towards more effective action by electric utilities. It provides the granular, actionable insights that emergency managers at electric utilities need to protect communities and infrastructure in an increasingly wildfire-prone environment.

The term “unprecedented” is often used in the media to describe seemingly new wildfire impacts. Yet, we have seen numerous “unprecedented” wildfire events in the past five years stemming from asset-caused ignitions. For a risk manager at an electric utility, it’s crucial to recognize that the threat of catastrophic wildfires is pervasive and exists almost everywhere.

Technosylva’s Senior Data Scientist, Pavel Grechanuk, explains that the wildfire mitigation strategies of electric utilities demand more than a simple designation of risk levels. Electric utilities need a comprehensive, nuanced approach that recognizes the complexities of fuels, climate, and people. More importantly, by combining climatological analysis with operational risk modeling, electric utilities can forecast catastrophic events and take action ahead of time to minimize impacts.

5 Key Takeaways:

• Unprecedented Wildfires Are Increasingly Common: Climate change is making severe wildfires more frequent and unpredictable, even in previously low-risk areas.
• Comprehensive Risk Assessment is Essential: Utilities need to go beyond simple risk designations and consider factors like fuels, climate, and people to accurately assess their wildfire risk.
• Climatological Analysis and Operational Risk Modeling Are Crucial: Combining these two approaches helps utilities understand what is normal and what is coming in the near term, enabling better forecasting of unprecedented events.
• Advanced Fire Spread Modeling is Necessary: This technology can predict where a fire will go and its potential impacts, aiding in decision-making.
• Proactive Management is Key: By implementing a comprehensive modeling framework, utilities can better prepare for and respond to severe weather events, even those that were previously considered unprecedented.

Read our full article in Utility Dive and see how leading electric utilities are advancing their outage analytics to help prioritize asset hardening and vegetation management decisions.

Electric company executives recognize the risk wildfires pose to their assets, customers, and the communities they serve. Yet, starting from a position of strength and staying ahead of that evolving risk is a challenge. Executives are also seeing a shifting regulatory and legal landscape around wildfire liability and what electric companies are expected to have already in place to reduce asset-caused ignitions.

Risk management for other natural hazards like ice and snow often revolves around outage restoration and explainable models for revenue loss of customers awaiting power. Wildfire risk is different because electric companies must assess the combined probability of an event occurring – an asset-caused ignition – and what the consequences will be from that ignition. With this knowledge, you can explain your company’s actual risk to insurers and plan your mitigation to reduce that risk further. Just knowing your service area’s wildfire risk isn’t enough anymore.

Technosylva’s CEO Bryan Spear shared in Electric Perspectives Magazine the 3 ways executives can gain the advantage.

In summary, those are:

1. Understanding the potential consequences of asset-ignited wildfires is crucial. Not all ignitions are created equal, so electric companies must prioritize assets for hardening based on their likelihood of causing severe damage, not just the risk around them.
2. Taking the probability of ignition into account when assessing an electric company’s wildfire risk. Electric companies often assume that this probability is uniform across all assets, but in reality, it depends on a variety of ever-shifting factors, such as vegetation, weather, and landscape. Quantifying expected risk from assets can help prioritize mitigation efforts and vegetation management planning.
3. Integrating advanced weather data asset outage analysis to gain a comprehensive view of overall wildfire risk. By combining the probability of failure with the probability of ignition, executives can determine the likelihood of a specific asset causing a wildfire. This helps forecasting possible ignitions and taking proactive measures to prevent them.

Learn how you can predict, mitigate, and prevent your evolving wildfire risk and additionally, how Technosylva solutions provide leading electric utilities with increased risk management, operations, asset mitigation, emergency planning, regulatory compliance, and improved public safety.

You can read the full article in Electric Perspectives Magazine here.