Picture this scenario: At 2:47 AM on a wind-whipped October morning, an electric utility meteorologist stares at forecast models with growing unease. What had been predicted as manageable 35 mph winds twelve hours earlier now shows catastrophic potential: sustained winds of 45 mph with gusts reaching 70. In twelve hours, the electric utility might need to make a decision that would have been unthinkable just five years ago: intentionally cutting power for up to 50,000 customers in order to prevent a high-probability catastrophic wildfire.

For electric utilities in wildfire-risk areas nationwide, this scenario represents the new reality of operations. Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS), once a radical concept, have rapidly evolved into the new standard of care. Today, regulators don’t just expect electric utilities to have PSPS programs: they consider it negligent not to have them, even if they’re rarely used.

This requires electric utilities to embrace a fundamental change in mindset, from “we will never turn off the power” to “we will do everything in our power to create a safe community, and minimize the impact of PSPS if it needs to be used.” This comes with a change in operational approach, which requires data, precision and communication to approach PSPS surgically: only when necessary and only where necessary.

The Sprint Against Time

Unlike traditional electric utility operations that can unfold over days or weeks, PSPS decisions happen in a compressed timeframe that leaves no room for hesitation. Electric utilities have maybe 48 to 72 hours from the moment they can forecast high-risk conditions to the moment they need to notify customers. In that window, they’re analyzing thousands of assets, running risk calculations on hundreds of circuits, and making decisions that affect tens of thousands of lives.

This isn’t leisurely analysis: it’s a sprint requiring immediate action and coordinated responses. The process has evolved dramatically since those early days of broad shutoffs, with electric utilities developing increasingly precise approaches to minimize customer impacts while maintaining safety.

But this precision comes at a cost: the need for split-second decision-making under enormous pressure.

The Meteorologist’s Critical Role

In this new paradigm, electric utility meteorologists have become the first line of defense in wildfire prevention. No longer simply weather forecasters, they’re now critical decision-makers whose forecasts trigger million-dollar operational responses. Meteorologists who once focused on telling operations teams what weather to expect now must identify which areas face the highest ignition risk.

The integration between meteorology and operations has become seamless by necessity. Weather data flows directly into asset risk models, which feed into circuit-level decision matrices, which trigger customer notification systems—all within hours of a forecast update.

Building Your Decision-Making Framework

For electric utilities developing or refining their PSPS capabilities, the operational challenge centers on key questions that must be answered before the next high-risk weather event:

Decision Prioritization: What sequence of decisions needs to be established in advance? How do you move from weather forecast to asset evaluation to customer notification in compressed timeframes? Which decisions can be made in parallel, and which must follow a specific order?

Rapid Asset Evaluation: When analyzing thousands of assets under time pressure, how do you prioritize which circuits or equipment to evaluate first? What criteria determine high-priority versus lower-priority areas for immediate risk assessment?

Internal Capability Requirements: What roles and expertise need to be available 24/7 during high-risk periods? How do you structure teams to enable rapid decision-making across meteorology, operations, and customer communications?

Communication Coordination: How do you ensure seamless information flow from weather forecasting through operational decisions to customer notifications? What internal processes prevent communication delays when every hour matters?

These questions don’t have universal answers: each electric utility’s responses will depend on their specific territory, asset configuration, and risk profile. But addressing them in advance creates the foundation for effective PSPS decision-making when time is critical.

The Path Forward

The evolution is measurable: PG&E has brought down its number of impacted customers by over 10x per year through wildfire forecasting, asset-level risk analysis, and circuit control improvements since 2018. What once seemed like an impossible balance (safety and reliability) has become the new standard of excellence.

For electric utility leaders still navigating this transition, PSPS isn’t just another tool in the wildfire mitigation toolkit. It’s a fundamental reimagining of what it means to serve communities responsibly in an era of climate risk. The electric utilities that thrive will be those that embrace this paradigm shift completely, investing in the meteorological capabilities, operational precision, and community relationships that make PSPS not just possible, but optimized and exemplary.

The lights may go out by design, but the mission has never been clearer: keeping communities safe through decisive operational decision-making.

Duration: 45 minutes

As wildfire threats grow in more regions, electric utilities need to rethink how they assess and manage risk. In this webinar, Technosylva’s Steve Vanderburg explains why it’s critical to shift from static assessments to dynamic, real-time tools.

Learn how utilities are using advanced modeling, AI, and weather data to:

• Move from one-time assessments to continuous risk analysis
• Make real-time operational decisions during fire events
• Prioritize mitigation efforts with circuit-level precision
• Strengthen wildfire response plans and infrastructure protection

The increasing threat of catastrophic wildfires is forcing a contradiction between two of the fundamental aspects of the utility compact – safe and reliable power.

Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS), or the de-energization of lines that are likely to cause an ignition during a weather event, have become a critical tool for wildfire prevention and mitigation.

PSPS represents a collision between the industry’s core operations, focused on continuous reliable service, and the new reality of wildfire risk, which necessitates proactive, disruptive interventions for safety.

This collision demands a complete cultural overhaul, not just operational adjustments.

Although it’s often described as a “measure of last resort” in an electric utility’s wildfire mitigation toolbox, PSPS is an increasingly necessary tool. The decision to implement a PSPS is never taken lightly, as it represents a significant operational and cultural shift.

However, allowing Mother Nature to take control during extreme weather can lead to uncontrolled outages, sparking ignitions and potentially catastrophic wildfires.

More and more, leading utilities are adopting a more “Surgical PSPS”, which uses better intelligence about ignition risk to minimize the outage area and impact fewer people.

The Evolving Standard of Care

PSPS is rapidly becoming the new standard of care for electric utilities, even those in lower-risk areas. Regulators increasingly expect electric utilities to have a PSPS program in place, regardless of whether they anticipate using it. This reflects the growing recognition of wildfire risk and the need for proactive mitigation.

Operationalizing PSPS

Implementing a PSPS is often new and takes work, but can be well within the capabilities and budgets of utilities who want to evolve quickly to protect their customers and grid.

• It begins with the weather conditions: identifying impending weather conditions that combine with local risk factors (fuels and terrain) to create high fire risk. Electric utilities must pinpoint the specific areas and assets at risk.
• Electric utilities often have a 48-72 hour customer notification requirement before a PSPS event. This tight timeframe can put pressure on operations. Analyzing thousands of miles of power lines and hundreds of circuits to determine the scope of a PSPS requires rapid data processing and decision-making. Delays in meteorological forecasting or internal analysis can significantly impact an electric utility’s ability to meet notification deadlines and execute a PSPS effectively. Dynamic data for decision-making is key.
• Beyond the technical challenges, PSPS involves a significant human element. Electric utility personnel must make difficult decisions that impact thousands of customers. Public safety needs must be balanced against the disruption caused by power outages. In addition to the actual decision-making, the best PSPS programs communicate well with customers before, during and after an event, sharing both the information as well as being more transparent about the logic applied to keep people as safe as possible.

The Bottom Line

PSPS is a complex and challenging but crucial tool for wildfire mitigation. Electric utilities can develop robust PSPS programs and embrace a proactive safety culture, where PSPS is not seen as a failure, but as a necessary tool for protecting communities. This requires a fundamental cultural shift, not just operational adjustments, but in the ability to redefine the core mission in the face of escalating wildfire risk.

The Big Picture

Electric utility risk managers face a new and increasingly critical challenge: effectively communicating wildfire risk and mitigation efforts to a concerned public.

This isn’t just about providing information; it’s about building trust with customers and stakeholders in the face of potentially disruptive and controversial measures like Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS).

The gap is widening between the complex realities of wildfire risk management and the broad understanding of those realities.

Failure to bridge this gap can lead to backlash, erode trust, and hinder an electric utility’s ability to implement necessary risk reduction strategies.

Customers Will Be Increasingly Impacted by Wildfire Operations

• Customers Need To Be Brought Along: Framing PSPS as a “last resort” is often insufficient. The reality is that it’s becoming a necessary standard of care.
  The problem is changing public perception to understand that PSPS are not failures but a critical tool to prevent catastrophic outcomes, especially those “1 in 100 year” events that are becoming more frequent.
• The New Reality of Wildfire Operations: Although PSPS is the ‘measure of last resort’, the increasing frequency of them, combined with the inherent disruption they cause, can create a significant trust deficit.
  Customers, creditors, and boards are demanding transparency and justification for these measures.
  Without clear and consistent communication, electric utilities risk alienating their stakeholders and facing severe reputational damage.

What Utilities Can Start To Do Differently in Customer Communications

• Demystifying Risk Mitigation: Simply documenting risk reduction efforts isn’t enough. Utilities must translate complex technical information—investments in fire science, operational improvements, etc.—into clear, accessible language that resonates with the public. It’s not just about what information to communicate, but also how to communicate it most effectively.
• Explaining the Avoided Tragedy: While post-PSPS simulations can demonstrate effectiveness, the abstract nature of “avoided risk” can be difficult for the public to grasp.
  Leading electric utilities are sharing their forecast and simulation estimates, in terms of buildings and people in harm’s way, to show communities that they are being considered in these decisions.
• Proactive Communication, Beyond PSPS: True engagement requires collaboration and understanding the specific needs of at-risk communities.
  Before events, leading electric utilities are building genuine partnerships, incorporating community feedback into PSPS planning and becoming publicly visible with their proactive mitigation efforts.

There is increased public scrutiny of electric utility wildfire risk management practices.

This calls for the development of standardized communication protocols for PSPS events and the use of technology to enhance communication and community engagement to ensure the evolution of public perception of PSPS as a valued and successful risk mitigation tool.

Catastrophic wildfires ignited by electrical equipment were often considered a “California issue”. Yet, extreme weather and a changing climate are causing electric utilities across the country to face the specter of wildfire for the first time. Now, they are being told by their regulators, investors, and insurers that they must develop a Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) program. They’re being told to institute detailed plans to mitigate wildfire risk. All the while, they’re thinking, we don’t have wildfire risk!

Technosylva’s Vice President for Weather & Risk Solutions, Steve Vanderburg, shares this scenario from his years of experience working for electric utilities and in emergency operations centers facing those threats. He says that the more guesswork electric utilities can take out of their decision-making, the better off they will be.

5 Key Takeaways:

• Proactive Wildfire Risk Management is Essential: Even electric utilities in seemingly low-risk areas can be caught off guard by severe wildfire events.
• Meteorological Expertise is Crucial: Understanding fire weather conditions is vital for effective wildfire risk mitigation.
• Advanced Risk Modeling is Key: Relying solely on publicly available data may not provide enough granularity to accurately assess the wildfire risk to electric utilities.
• Contextualizing Risk is Important: Understanding the potential impacts of weather events is essential for informed decision-making.
• Investing in wildfire risk reduction is a long-term strategy: Proactive measures can help mitigate wildfire dangers and protect communities.

Read our full article in Utility Dive and see how leading electric utilities are employing various tools like weather forecasts, ignition models, on-demand wildfire spread predictions, and impact analysis, to forecast & monitor wildfire risks days in advance.

What is PSPS – Public Safety Power Shutoff?

With news media across various western states highlighting possible “PSPS events”, it’s helpful to understand how wildfire risk has increased as we enter the fall and what PSPS means for electric utilities as they look to keep communities safe. PSPS stands for Public Safety Power Shut Off. As wildfires become a growing threat due to extreme weather, electric utilities must take serious measures to prevent asset-caused ignitions. One of the ways they do this is with a PSPS program. But how does it work?

Proactively Turning Off the Power

During high-risk weather – think of strong winds or dry conditions – damaged or downed power lines or electrical equipment can spark a fire. By preemptively turning off the power before disaster strikes, utilities can maintain control and reduce the risk of sparks turning into wildfires. An electric utility may employ a PSPS program, which reflects a series of data-driven decisions that lead to possibly shutting off power to prevent a forced outage or an issue that could potentially lead to an ignition. By turning off the power ahead of time, they’re getting ahead of what they see as a potential outage risk. This affords control over how the power goes out and lowers the risk of ignition. If they don’t and Mother Nature takes control, there’s a chance a spark can impact communities.

Even though PSPS is a compelling tool, it’s not an option electric utilities make lightly. It is typically employed as a last resort, only coming into play after they’ve exhausted all alternatives. But when the risk of a wildfire is too high and other steps aren’t enough, PSPS becomes the best option to protect communities. It is becoming a standard safety measure across the industry, even if electric utilities don’t need or plan to use them often.

A Big Change for Power Companies

While PSPS might sound like a good solution, it’s not something electric utilities enjoy doing. A utility provider’s greatest goal is to provide reliable and uninterrupted power to its customers. Shutting the power off goes against everything they stand for. It’s not an easy decision, and there’s much to consider before making the call.

Imagine a software company in charge of providing data to customers suddenly having to decide to cut service for 48 hours to prevent harm. That’s similar to what electric utilities face with PSPS. It’s an adjustment for electric utilities because shutting off power goes against what is ingrained in any utility employee’s mind. However, when choosing between that or risking a wildfire, they have to do what’s necessary to keep people safe. Communities must also deal with periods of no power disrupting day-to-day life. This is why electric utilities need to adopt solutions that empower them to ensure PSPS events are rare, surgical when used, and span the shortest duration when activated.

Gaining the Advantage on Wildfire Decision-Making

In the end, PSPS is about balancing risk. While it’s not an easy decision for electric utilities, it can be a lifesaver in high-risk situations. As wildfires become more prevalent due to extreme weather, PSPS programs will become essential in protecting communities. Electric utilities can employ solutions to monitor and forecast emerging weather and wildfire risks in scenarios days in advance. Imagine being able to assess high ignition potential and possible consequence over a 5-day horizon, every day, to support the identification of candidate circuits for PSPS consideration. See how leading electric utilities employ various tools like weather forecasts, ignition models, on-demand wildfire spread predictions, and impact analysis to forecast & monitor wildfire risks days in advance.