Overview
Bear Valley uses Technosylva to enhance their Risk Mapping Program and gain situational awareness in their high fire risk zones. Technosylva’s platform allows them to better understand their risk environment for operational decision making, such as resource allocation.
Bear Valley’s service area is uniquely threatened by wildfire and uses Technosylva as part of their efforts to help protect customers and the community from the risk of wildfires.
The California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) Fire-Threat Map, adopted January 19, 2018, designated Bear Valley’s service area as being in the High Fire-Threat District (HFTD) with approximately 90% in Tier 2 (elevated risk) and the remaining 10% in Tier 3 (extreme risk) areas.
Improving Data-Driven Decision Making
BVES has significantly advanced its risk methodologies and assessments, including by hiring the risk modeling firm Technosylva to improve Bear Valley’s risk assessment, modeling, and monitoring capabilities
Risk Mapping & Situational Awareness
In June of 2022, BVES contracted with Technosylva to further advance the Risk Mapping Program, enhance situational awareness, and better understand the risk environment to improve BVES’s resource allocation. This effort leveraged Technosylva’s Wildfire Analyst Enterprise software capabilities and solutions implemented across California for other electric utility companies. Engaging with Technosylva has provided BVES software applications and analysis to generate the following:
- Through the use of FireSim, provision of on-demand, real-time wildfire behavior modeling, predictive spread conditions, and derivation of potential impacts analysis
- Ability to conduct simulations on-demand, to reflect changing conditions or local data observations, including proactive “what if” scenarios
- Weather and wildfire risk forecasting for customer assets and the service territory using daily weather prediction integration to support PSPS activation calls and response operations.
Ignition Potential
BVES now obtains ignition likelihood as calculated output from Technosylva’s WFA-E model on at least a daily basis. This output is currently used in qualitatively evaluating PSPS likelihood and consequently PSPS risk. BVES is working on developing a Fire Potential Index (FPI) with Technosylva to calculate PSPS risk in a quantitative manner.
Modeling Wildfire Consequence
The asset risk analysis utilizes Technosylva’s Wildfire Risk Reduction Model which uses weather & fuel moisture data as key input weather scenarios (~ 30 year and 2 km hourly reanalysis data). The outputs are to be used to support mitigation planning in addition to setting context for daily asset risk forecasts.
